The Personalized Healthcare Ecosystem of the Future: Welcome to the Year 2030

Against your better judgment, you've just checked your contact lens-enabled news feed. You're annoyed, because President Meghan McCain has just used the Trump Doctrine to "fire" Medicare's lead administrator over the botched roll-out of the Agency's block-chain claims payment system.  The mild spike in sweat stress chemicals detected by your clothing sensors prompts a boost in the transcutaneous dosing of the blood pressure pharmaceuticals from the networked skin patch on your thigh. 

 

It's the year 2030, and personalized "eDxTx" (ecosystems of Diagnosis and Treatment) has arrived for a lucky few who are able to afford it. That has created political headaches for the President and her campaign promise to bring Medicare out of the 20th century. Your decision to opt out of "Medicare for All" (a.k.a "TrumpCare") has been expensive, but worth it because your Geico insurance plan includes eHealth as a covered benefit.  Geico's ability to automate all underwriting and claims handling means high service standards and keeping costs down. Plus, those video ads are still cool.

Thanks to ubiquitous wireless connectivity, cloud-based machine intelligence and mass-personalized medicine, you and your private doctor's team were able to configure a suite of customizable off-the-shelf apps that meet your goals for living well as well as long.  The first step was your $2 psychometric, biomic and genetic testing (the expense of a mitochondrial analysis was offset with an agreement with the laboratory, Theranos, to pool your data with other customers) that spotlighted the optimum mix of nutrition and pharmaceuticals to blunt your risk of Type 15 Hypertension and GAB15a-linked gastrointestinal cancer. 

As you sit down and use the heads up display in your lens to ponder the short-list of candidates to replace the fired administrator (a well-placed leak suggests it reportedly includes Elizabeth Holmes), the patch modulates your drug dosing to account for the change in body position.

You're hungry and looking forward to your specially tailored evening meal that is being drone-delivered to your patio in.... your contact lens again... 28 minutes. 

This is one of the five days out of the week that you adhere to a configured meal of calories, carbs, proteins, fats, nutraceuticals, probiotics and prebiotics that's adjusted to meet your taste preferences. It will also achieve an optimal body fat percentage, and reduce your risk of cancer and a host of other chronic conditions. The other two days use competitive gamification that is linked to your online preferences to reward you with a real burger for meeting your nutrition goals.  Not for everyone, but your behavioral reward profile suggested that that would help motivate you to stick to the diet. Who knew?

You ponder getting a burger tonight, but fight the temptation by triggering a mindfulness app through your lens.  The lights in your living space also dim and a riff made up of an pleasing artificial jazz-indie chord progression offers a well-placed distraction.

Diet and risk reduction are not the only an ingredients you use to achieve your goal of living 105 years, but also participating in next month's Goggle Spartan Race.  Come to think of it, time to tailor a set of 3D printed sneakers. You look forward to you and your personal life-drone (your spouse suggests it's more evidence of your narcissism; you've named it "Donald" to confirm her suspicions and annoy her) competing in a mix of virtual and real obstacles in a course of that includes real rope climbing and a virtual 3-D avatar obstacle course. The drone and wearables will network, monitor and heads-up display your neuro and cardiovascular dashboard for optimal performance. It will also use the same technology that they used in hospitals to anticipate any medical emergencies that could happen to you.

Naturally, your drone will use artificial intelligence to image, edit and securely post the race video for friends and family to view.

That's what you did last year, when the video also showed you twisting your ankle.  You had to go to a treatment center and be evaluated the old fashioned way, where a doctor treated you.  Some things never change, but avoiding those opaque bills and paying your deductible using virtual currency was so convenient.

As your pour yourself your recommended 1.2 ounces of bourbon (personalized by the distillery with a proprietary combination of esters and lactones to create your preferred finish), you reflect on how healthcare has changed since the days of in-home monitoring and physician teleconferencing. It worked well while it lasted, but was soon eclipsed by the cloud-based technology that combined physician intelligence ("physint") with Watson (artificial intelligence) that "scaled" in an era of fully automated care. 

Sort of like the driverless car that will take you to next month's race.

Speaking of old fashioned cars, that eDxTx medical alert last year reminded you of that old fashioned "check engine" light.  It seems a biochemical marker profile was consistent with the presence of an early stage tumor.  Based on your past medical data, the calculated Bayesian risk that the tumor was real approached 1%.  Watchful waiting using Medicare's IPAB guideline recommendations was raised as an option by your doctor, but you decided to undergo the additional testing to rule it out.  Naturally, your insurance covered most of that cost.

You finish your bourbon after you get an alert that the pizza has arrived.  You silently wish President McCain good luck. Some things never change.

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The Myriad Ways of Strategy and Population Health for Governance Boards and Health Care Leaders

What's it take to be a "luminary?"

As healthcare organization leaders grapple with health reform's uncertainties, a common refrain is importance of "strategy".

It's no longer enough to maximize revenue, increase patient throughput, lower costs, manage debt, embrace financial risk, optimize FTEs, assure compliance or strengthen the balance sheet.

While those present management and fiduciary functions are still critical, governance boards and c-suite executives in both purchaser and provider organizations also have to make bets about the future.

For example, if healthcare inflation accelerates, how will your current customers react to their future costs-sharing? How and when will today's voters reconcile the burdens from growing public debt and government-sponsorship of the insurance programs you contract with? As "the internet of things" spreads, what is tomorrow's value proposition of your healthcare "things?"  Is reading this blog today going to lead to you being smarter in tomorrow's contentious meeting?

In other words, when leaders grapple with strategy, they're really futurists. They're making bets today on how to adapt current strengths and weaknesses to myriad downstream threats and opportunities.

Uncertainty has become a new watchword. Even if an organization doesn't change and sticks with old fashioned fee-for-service, they're still making a big wager on the future of individual billing versus risk-contracting for populations.

Which is why the Population Health Blog is interested in how leaders outside of healthcare deal with uncertainty. 

Being routinely unable to resist the materialistic allure of the WSJ. Magazine fashion ads, the PHB  happily stumbled into this Soapbox column on the single topic of strategy. Six "luminaries" were asked about it.

The recording industry executive emphasized visualizing the endgame. The professional sailor trusts her gut instincts. The computer gamer is all about capitalizing on lucky breaks. The presidential historian liked ongoing experimentation. The restaurateur is constantly shaping company culture. The matchmaker likes being open to change, even if it means being vulnerable.

Lesson? The PHB has read or heard all of this and more from leaders and in boardrooms. Examples include this (the end-game), this (intuition), this (luck), this (experimentation), this (culture) and this (change management).

"Strategy" remains a highly variable work in progress.  There is no best practice.

And then there's the huge health care opportunities and risks from contracting for the care of populations. Check out this interesting post by George Washington University's Miliken Institute of Public Health that describes a survey of 37 health care luminaries on the topic of population health. As the author points out, consensus on responsibility (and, as a side note, the assets and liabilities that accompany it) is lacking.  In addition, quoting the "Triple Aim" is turning out to be less than its admirers would like.

So it turns out that this is also very much a work in progress.

The PHB's takes?

 There are two:

1) Multiply the many approaches to strategy with the multiple takes on caring for populations and the possibilities are endless. Based on the variations, no one has cracked the code applying strategy to populations and risk-contracting.

For purchaser/provider board members and C-suite leaders, the good news is that your strategic bets on the future are - for now - as good as anyone's. The bad news is that the present day fiduciary work is not lessened and you're going to have to devote more effort (and time) on developing a still unsettled strategy approach to the uncertainties surrounding health reform.

2) Regrettably, despite describing itself as a "luminary" many times to the PHB Spouse, it was not included in the WSJ. column and the Miliken Blog.  This sadly suggests that her skepticism - for now - is warranted.

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