So here, in no particular order, are the DMCB Predictions for disease management in 2009:
The death of the Disease Management Business Model will turn out to be greatly exaggerated thanks to:
The first reports from the multiple insurer sponsored pilots on the patient centered medical home (PCMH) will be a mix of
The rise of Disease Management Lite (defined by the DMCB as any remote intervention that doesn’t principally rely on expensive nurses) thanks to:
The Medicare Medical Home Demonstration will lumber along and will ironically slow adoption of the PCMH as an ingredient in health care reform because a) we have to wait for the results and b) the CBO's lukewarm non-support.
Blogs will become even more important in the shaping of health care policy. Policy makers will monitor and try to shape their reactions in the evolving healthcare debate, start their own blogs and build alliances with existing like-minded bloggers. Ask the health policy bloggers how many times they’re detecting 'U.S Senate Sergeant at Arms' or 'Centers for Medicare Services' in their daily traffic. It’s not small.
Lacking any credible short term fixes, primary care shortages will spike. Not only will appointments for new patients continue to evaporate, but appointments for old patients will be squeezed. The continued unraveling of primary care will make disease management services even more attractive to policy makers.